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The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) this week published a strategic risk assessment identifying six trends its analysts believe are likely to have a “profound effect” on U.S. critical infrastructure and its resiliency during the next 10 years.  Published by DHS’s Office of Cyber and Infrastructure Analysis (OCIA), “U.S. Critical Infrastructure 2025: A Strategic Risk Assessment” explains that if stakeholders and policy makers fail to anticipate and mitigate for the consequences of the six trends, U.S. critical infrastructure will be weakened and degraded, which could have national security consequences.

The six trends are:

Convergence of the Cyber and Physical Domains.  Information technology will be extensively incorporated into critical infrastructure, creating “immeasurable vulnerabilities and attack vectors” that are likely to be exploited more and more.

Aerial Threats from Non-Traditional Aviation Technology (NTAT).  Low cost and easy-to-operate NTAT (aka drones, gyrocopters, etc.) provide increased capabilities for people with harmful intentions to overcome formerly effective physical barriers.

Evolving Terrorist Threat. Terrorist organizations will continue to use internal and social media platforms to reach and radicalize individuals in the U.S. and encourage them to attack critical infrastructure. Their capabilities are certain to become more sophisticated, and cyber-terrorism is expected to increase.

The State of U.S. Infrastructure.  Water and wastewater, transportation, energy and dams infrastructure are approaching the ends of their designed life spans.  Funding and labor shortages could hamper efforts to inspect, maintain, upgrade and repair this infrastructure, potentially undermining resilience to disasters and attacks.

Extreme Weather.  The frequency and severity of extreme weather is likely to result in critical infrastructure damage and could result in population shifts.

Pandemics.  Critical sectors like water, wastewater and energy are likely to be most affected by pandemics, but all sectors are likely to be affected in some way by the unavailability of necessary personnel.

The 22-page report elaborates on each trend and provides several examples as well as glossaries. Members may find the document useful in helping to justify budgets for security and resilience.