Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency when voters go to the polls on November 8, with Democrats also holding a strong chance of winning control of the Senate. Republicans, however, are expected to narrowly hold onto to their majority in the House of Representatives, meaning the country can look forward to at least two more years of divided government in Washington, D.C.
Clinton’s candidacy greatly benefits from an Electoral College map that gives Democrats many more paths to the White House than Republicans. To illustrate, 18 states and the District of Columbia have voted for the Democratic nominee in every presidential election since 1992. Those states and D.C. currently represent 242 electoral votes – just 28 shy of the 270 needed to win the necessary majority. This gives Clinton many possible paths to 270 if she holds these traditionally Democratic states, such as winning Florida alone (29 electoral votes), both North Carolina and Virginia (15 and 13), or Colorado, Ohio, and Nevada (33 electoral votes total).
Conversely, the Republican nominee has won 13 states in every presidential election since 1992, representing just 102 electoral votes. Even if Donald Trump were to start with all 206 electoral votes won by Mitt Romney in 2012 (including potentially tough victories in Arizona, Missouri, Georgia and North Carolina), he would have to pick up an additional 64 votes from remaining swing states. Running the table through Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania (representing a total of 67 electoral votes) would represent one of his best chances to achieve a victory.
Looking to the Senate, Democrats need to pick up four seats to take control of the chamber, assuming Clinton wins the presidency (thus making new Vice President Tim Kaine the Senate’s tiebreaking vote). This year’s electoral map heavily favors Democrats, as 24 Republicans are facing voters this year and two of them (Wisconsin’s Ron Johnson and Illinois’ Mark Kirk) are almost certain to lose. This means Democrats must flip only two of the remaining 22 seats defended by Republicans to win control of the chamber. They have many opportunities to do so, such as defeating Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania, Kelly Ayotte in New Hampshire, Richard Burr in North Carolina, Roy Blunt in Missouri, Marco Rubio in Florida, or taking the open Indiana seat of the retiring Dan Coats. Republicans, on the other hand, only have one realistic pickup opportunity among the 10 Senate seats defended by Democrats this year: the Nevada seat left vacant by the retiring Harry Reid.
Regardless of likely Democratic wins in the White House and the Senate, Republicans are expected to hold their House majority – though it will be narrower than it is today. Democrats need to flip 30 Republican House seats to win the chamber, but at this point they are generally forecasted to pick up only about 20 or so of these. While much could change before Election Day, it currently appears that control of the House will remain just out of Democrats’ reach.