The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has produced a summary of how population growth and decline can lead to stresses on critical infrastructure, particularly in the water and wastewater, energy and transportation sectors. The report, Impact of Population Shifts on Critical Infrastructure, was published on July 6 by the DHS Office of Cyber and Infrastructure Analysis (OCIA).
Between 2010 2014, 96 of the 381 U.S. metropolitan statistical areas had a growth rate of 5 percent or higher, whereas 48 metropolitan statistical areas experienced population declines, according the U.S. Census Bureau and the Office of Management and Budget. The report notes that since the end of the 20th century, populations have shifted from the Northeast and Midwest to the South and West, due in part to new high-technology magnet areas, shale energy development in rural area, regrowth in cities with housing-led reversals, lower costs of living, and lower tax rates.
Here are the key findings of the report:
- Rapid population growth may increase the stress on an area’s critical infrastructure when usage increases faster than new infrastructure can be built and existing infrastructure can be improved or retrofitted.
- Persistent population declines may shrink tax bases and decrease funding available to maintain, repair, and replace infrastructure. Persistent population declines are most commonly found in the Northeast and Midwest, especially along the Rust Belt.
- Population increases, which can occur rapidly, are difficult to predict. Population decreases can last for extended periods and affect infrastructure systems built decades earlier.
The 12-page report lightly discusses some of the reasons for the population shifts, the positive and negative effects of the shifts, and how strategic planning and public-private partnerships might alleviate the effects of shifts.