NOAA announced on August 16 the launch of a National Water Model, a river and stream forecasting model for the continental United States. The complex representation of processes that affect streamflow across the U.S. necessitates the use of NOAA’s Cray SC40 supercomputer for the analyses. The model generates hourly, short-range forecasts for the entire river network by using data from more than 8,000 USGS river gauge sites to simulate streamflow at 2.7 million locations. Previously, hourly forecasts were only provided a few times per day at approximately 4,000 locations. The model can also produce medium-range, 10-day forecasts at a rate of once per day. The model also provides other hydrologic information on 1-kilometer and 250-meter grids. Additional information including model details and configuration are available online.
The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) developed the underlying technology for the model and NOAA worked with a number of federal and academic partners to develop and test the model. “Through our partnership with the research, academic and federal water community, NOAA is bringing the state-of-the-science in water forecasting and prediction to bear operationally,” said Thomas Graziano, Ph.D., director of NOAA’s new Office of Water Prediction at the National Weather Service. “Over the past 50 years, our capabilities have been limited to forecasting river flow at a relatively limited number of locations. This model expands our forecast locations 700 times and generates several additional water variables, such as soil moisture, runoff, stream velocity and other parameters to produce a more comprehensive picture of water behavior across the country.”