A report released by the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, Attribution of Extreme Weather Events in the Context of Climate Change, examines the state of the science of extreme weather attribution and identifies ways that the science can improve attribution capabilities. Attribution is the process of evaluating the relative contribution of multiple factors to a single event. The “relatively young science” of attributing extreme weather events to the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has gained traction recently. The report states that some extreme events – such as extreme cold and extreme heat – are more attributable to climate change than other events, such as wildfires and extreme snow and ice.
The report’s authors suggest that understanding attribution can be improved by the way research questions are asked. For example, asking whether an individual extreme event, such as Superstorm Sandy, was caused by climate change is the wrong question to ask; a better question is whether the intensity or duration of Superstorm Sandy was caused by climate change.
The report cautions that attribution studies of single events should not be used to draw conclusions generally about the impact of climate change on extreme events as a whole. As more researchers examine this topic, the report says, research efforts would benefit from coordination to make sure there is a systematic approach to framing and studying attribution and that uncertainties are explored across research methods.
The report also notes that future event attribution activities could benefit from being linked to an integrated weather-to-climate forecasting effort on a range of timescales. Ultimately the outcomes of this research could lead to predictive forecasts of near-term extreme events that are days away or upcoming events that are several seasons in the future.